Item hit rate and loot share

Hit rate asks how often a chest contained at least one Prismatic item. Loot share asks how much of the recorded loot was Prismatic. Multiple items in one opening count separately for loot share, and once for the opening hit rate.

Example: 10 openings contain 50 loot items. Two openings contain three Prismatic items in total. The hit rate is 2 ÷ 10 = 20%; the loot share is 3 ÷ 50 = 6%.

Average, median, and recorded extremes

Average is total displayed Coin divided by the number of complete-value openings. Median is the middle total after sorting. For totals 10,000, 20,000 and 90,000, the average is 40,000 and the median is 20,000.

Unknown Coin values exclude an opening from Coin statistics. Matched-item reference values can be included. Lowest and highest recorded values are sample observations, not the game’s limits. Displayed value does not mean every item was carried out.

Why a zero-hit sample still has a range

No observed hits does not prove the true chance is zero. The 95% hit-rate range uses a Wilson interval to express sampling uncertainty. It does not include selection bias, OCR mistakes or changes between game updates, and it is not a scanner reliability score.

Key-room value and cost coverage

The preset uses 1 Prismatic + 2 Golden chests, counting Gold and Prismatic loot, and subtracts a 100,000-Coin Gilded Key shop purchase. The key’s 70,000 displayed loot value is a different figure.

Average room value adds the selected chest-tier averages. Average after key cost subtracts the purchase cost. A positive average does not guarantee a profit from one room.

Cost coverage recombines observed whole-chest totals and counts how many modeled combinations reach the cost. This preserves item relationships inside a chest, but assumes independent chest outcomes, representative samples, and unchanged same-tier loot inside and outside key rooms. These are modeled rooms, not additional recorded rooms. Breaking even counts as covering cost.

Several openings and streaks

Repeated-opening estimates assume independent outcomes and an unchanged hit rate. Missing several times does not make the next opening due for a hit.

Weight pips and egg observations

When there is no observed pip reading, the assumed mapping is one pip per 3 kg, rounded up and capped at five: 1–3 kg → 1, 4–6 → 2, 7–9 → 3, 10–12 → 4, and 13 kg or more → 5.

Egg percentages use the current recorded manual egg tally, including corrections and resets. Shadow Sparkling is tracked separately from Prismana. This smaller tally is not a population-wide nest drop-rate estimate.